The general election in India is currently underway in what seems so far a low-decibel campaign between the ruling party and the opposition compared to previous elections. The 2024 election is significant to understand whether this will be an election where the opposition manages to stage a comeback – through the INDIA alliance – which has parties of different ideological slants working together and putting themselves forward as a credible alternative to the BJP led NDA coalition. Or whether, the election result will be the third iteration of BJP’s dominant position nationally and give substance to the argument that the BJP’s rise in 2014 marked a decisive and enduring shift in India’s party system and that we are witnessing a national player that will remain dominant at the centre - capturing a significant majority of seats and marginalizing other parties in the process.
For the BJP, the 2014 and 2019 elections were won decisively owing to the party’s better electoral preparedness, narrative control, organizational coordination and the hyper-nationalist framing of its campaign. The 2019 manifesto of the party also put forward some ambitious long-term objectives of the party, such as the abrogation of Article 370, and the construction of the Ram Mandir. The BJP has completed both these publicized ideological goals and is working to secure the support of its eager voter base by underlining its projection of being a decisive party in power. This is clear in its ongoing campaign, as the party has emphasized this narrative through social media and in election rallies, as ‘jo kaha who kiya’ or – what was promised, has been delivered. This is not a surprising plot line for the election – the Prime Minister himself has continually reiterated his long-term goal for the country, emphasizing that his government has laid the foundation for the future in the last ten years. This has been repeated consistently as the ‘Viksit Bharat’ mission, which has been ambiguously stated as ‘inclusive economic participation’ to turn India into a developed country. This ambitious economic plan has been staged as the culmination of the reckoning of India a hundred years later than independence – in 2047. It is a repetition of the ‘Vikas’ or development promised since 2014 but this time with a longer timeline and by projecting the necessity of the BJP and Modi himself – to India’s development pathway in the coming years.
The seemingly buoyant narrative set by the BJP has its roots in the victory margin of the party in the last two general elections. While in 2014, there was a visible dissatisfaction with the UPA, the BJP’s capture of the popular mandate was still surprising. The party’s campaign in 2014 was aimed at ‘272 plus’ and it achieved 282 seats, largely owing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity that closed the election in their favour. In 2019 the scale of BJP’s victory was even higher, capturing a six per cent vote share increase from the 2014 election and a total of 303 seats. In the 2019 campaign, the stated goal of the party was ‘more than 300 seats’ (or even 350 seats as was earlier claimed in 2017), and though it seemed incredible at the time, the party crossed the margin in the final count. For the 2024 election, the BJP has claimed that will get 370 seats, linking the number with the abrogation of article 370 – calling it a ‘profound sentiment’ for the party, to bestow itself with this contentious legacy through its stated election target. Despite the two wins however, 370, or now ‘400 paar’ (or 400 plus with the help of NDA’s allies), is a highly ambitious target for a third term, and seems to have been chosen for making certain that the electorate understands that this is a decisive election for the party. A third term would ensure the continuity of the party’s political narrative as well as its economic targets, but more importantly, cement its place as the unrivalled national party with no substantive opposition. The target seems designed to instil greater response from its cadre base to ensure no slacking occurs in the third election run, as also to ensure that a third and decisive win would project the party as the undisputed bearer of the people’s popular mandate and sideline the opposition even further.
Prime Minister Modi campaigning Picture Credits - NDTV
As remained the case before, the core strategy remains to make the contest a presidential-style contest between Modi himself and the opposition. The Modi ‘pull factor’ remains the push from the BJP, with a larger-than-life image of the Prime Minister efficiently honed and utilized by the party in successive campaigns. The BJP has projected the Modi factor in assembly polls concluded last year in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana, injecting the campaigns with inaugurations, public gatherings and initiation of development projects by him on his campaigns. For the 2024 campaign, an estimated 140 events and rallies have been lined up for the special appearance of the Prime Minister, with substantial electoral footwork to complement the process through ‘Pravasi Karyakartas’ campaigning to secure at least fifty-one per cent votes in every booth. The combination of intense organizational reach and the direct communication and populist style by Modi himself leading the campaign remains the preferred strategy of the party. Most of the government schemes have been attributed by the party itself to the Prime Minister’s initiative, with slogans such as ‘modi ki guarantee’ emphasizing the role of his personal will in many of the BJP’s flagship schemes and welfare initiatives.
There is an added emphasis in the current campaign on decisiveness, or ‘majboot sarkar’ that is designed to build the narrative that a unitary government is also strong on foreign policy and security issues, notwithstanding the ongoing difficulties with neighbours such as China. The narrative has been designed to underscore the lack of clarity on the opposition candidate for the Prime Minister’s position and to project the coalition as ideologically incoherent in contrast to the NDA. This is also clear in frequent jibes on the opposition parties, including the release of a BJP video advert showing a perplexing marriage discussion between a likely bride and members of India’s opposition arguing over who would be the groom between them. The Congress's response has been to denounce the parody, stating that it makes a mockery of the institution of marriage, and adding that such a depiction overlooks the fundamental choice that is crucial to democratic contests and in choosing political representatives. Indian parties have been able to offer voters a clear choice as coalitions despite long-standing ideological differences, and these differences have not impeded parties from working as stable coalitions with a working consensus on issues of policy and economy.
Despite the possibilities offered by coalitions earlier however, the INDIA alliance so far has not been able to showcase this unity in its campaign and counter the narrative being set by the BJP. India’s weakened opposition has not been able to come up with a common manifesto despite launching the bloc in July 2023, and all alliance parties have released their separate manifestos. There is also no working programme for joint rallies, barring the one in Ramlila Maidan on March 31. This lack of organization and coordination is impeding their presence in the current election. Their main emphasis to this point has been on the democratic process and the economy. From the suspension of 78 members of parliament last year, to the arrest of two sitting Chief Ministers as well as the partisan use of investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate, the opposition parties have tried to cast this election as ‘BJP vs Democracy’. Though not yet a determined narrative, many opposition leaders have spoken about the need for safeguarding democracy, secularism and responding to the divisive politics of the BJP. They have underlined the lack of a ‘level playing field’, owing to the financial advantage cornered by the BJP largely through electoral bonds, and the selective targeting of opposition leaders as an exercise in intimidation and stifling of leadership through politically motivated charges.
The second charge of the opposition has been on the lack of real progress for the country’s youth who have been left behind in India’s economic plans. The Congress has focused on unemployment and the lack of opportunities for the young in the formal sector, promising to fill government vacancies, plug paper leaks and recruitment scams and enable apprenticeship for graduates in collaboration with the public and private sectors. They have also focused on rural distress and the need for a minimum daily wage, as well as a minimum support price guarantee for farmers. The ‘nyay patra’ of the Congress has also called for a comprehensive caste census, a demand they have been making for some time but it is unlikely to be an issue that pulls votes. Many of these issues have been highlighted by the Samajwadi Party also in its manifesto, including supporting the old pension scheme and scrapping the Agnipath recruitment model in the armed forces. The CPI(M) has asked for a ban on corporate donations to parties, and scrapping of the UAPA and PMLA acts, among other issues. Many of these issues are critical to India’s future, but the lack of a comprehensive economic and political vision remains a weakness in this strategy that is unable to give the impression of a clear choice to the electorate.
Members of the INDIA Alliance Picture Credits - Mint
Ultimately, the Indian election hinges on the numbers and despite the limitations of the opposition the seat-sharing arrangements between the parties will determine the ground advantage compared to the BJP. The BJP is targeting its strong states and is likely to do well in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal, etc. The opposition may be able to do better in Telangana, Karnataka, Haryana and Bihar. There are however both states and non-aligned state parties that may ultimately determine the swing of the election. These include Maharashtra, where the breakup of two strong regional parties between the ruling NDA and the INDIA alliance is yet to be electorally tested and may produce a halfway house. Punjab is also going to be a divided house between the four major parties. The TMC in West Bengal and the BJD in Orissa are likely to face a difficult test against the BJP on their own. Jharkhand and Delhi may yield an advantage to the opposition depending on how much sympathy the beleaguered AAP and JMM can channel in their campaigns. Parties such as the BSP, and AIMIM not being part of the INDIA alliance are also likely to hurt the bloc. The BJP’s aggressive campaign in Tamil Nadu is likely to yield it a few seats, as are other Southern states where the party is making extra effort this time. The election road ahead is long and slow, the state of play is likely to see some shifts before the results are announced in June. This is a difficult election for India’s opposition, and it is being keenly watched to see if it can cover lost ground against the BJP.
Dr. Rashmi Singh is a political sociologist who researches political candidacy, electioneering and routine politics. She completed her Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge and has worked as a post-doctoral scholar at M. S. Merian- R. Tagore Centre of Advanced Studies prior to joining as an Assistant Professor at O. P. Jindal Global University. Her research examines the nature of women's under-representation in Indian politics and looks at the intricacies of candidate selection in political parties.